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Netflix In Netflux Flunks Recommendations

Qwikster can come soon enough

Netflix In Netflux Flunks Recommendations
originally published in MediaPost's Social Media Insider

I wouldn't have predicted that I'd be seeking a new entertainment recommendation service right at the time that I've been using Netflix the most. Sadly, with its forthcoming split into two companies, Netflix has lost any concept of what it is, and it has just opened a massive window for someone to trump it.

Since returning from Asia on Sept. 11, I've been using Netflix more than I ever have. It's been a perfect storm of sorts. Jet lag kept me awake at odd hours, a stomach bug kept me home more than usual (thanks, Mongolian mutton), and rerun-heavy weeks before the fall TV premieres ensured there were few new shows worth watching. Naturally, I turned to Netflix to fill the void.

It proved to yield mixed results. I did watch a number of films on Netflix, mostly documentaries. I only did so after sifting through hundreds of recommendations for movies I'd never want to watch, while looking for several movies that weren't available via streaming. Alternatively, I'd sift through the more limited options from Time Warner on-demand, including selections such as the wonderful "Mao's Last Dancer" that aren't yet available from Netflix. And rewatching this season of "Curb Your Enthusiasm" on HBO on-demand got me through a very long night.

All of this leads to what makes Netflix different from its competitors. Netflix isn't a movie delivery company. It's an entertainment recommendation engine that provides fast access to its recommendations. Netflix once valued recommendations so much that it offered a $1 million prize in October 2006 to anyone who could substantially improve its recommendations, a reward claimed in September 2009. The history of Netflix from 1997 to 2009 hinged on recommendations. And these recommendations benefited from the network effect: as more people participated in rating films, the ratings continually improved for all Netflix subscribers.

Since then, Netflix has shifted its focus to streaming. There are several challenges with that. The first is that the best streaming companies we have in the U.S. are the cable companies, as their pipes are best equipped to transmit the content. I'm no fan of Time Warner, but most of the time, it works instantly, and the high definition quality is a great bonus. Even in this economy, with cord cutting an important trend to follow, it will take a long time for most people to wean themselves off  cable.

Then there's selection. Netflix has a great selection for DVDs, but the selection for streaming will always be hindered by obvious examples of what's missing. If you're looking for movies that Netflix doesn't have for streaming, and it happens over and over again, it triggers a conditioned response. You get used to the idea that it only has what it offers you, not what you're looking for. People are used to that from cable operators, but not from Netflix, which once was known for having just about everything.

What Netflix is left with is a dumb pipe. It's a delivery mechanism for a lot of streaming content, and most people can probably rationalize getting their money's worth if they watch a couple movies or a chunk of a TV series each month that way. That's fine, and I'm not canceling my Netflix subscription yet.

But now you have a slew of opportunities. Others can trump Netflix in providing even faster access to content (possible winner: cable operators), better guides to figuring out what's available across content providers (potentially a next-generation Google TV, or the Xbox), better recommendation engines (startups like matcha.tv, or teams that competed for the Netflix Prize), or amassing the widest range of content (Facebook may play a role here).

The old Netflix encouraged others to beat it at its own game. During the 35 months of the Netflix Prize, and in the aftermath, it was clear that no one could beat Netflix at recommendations. Its analysis of user-generated content was such a competitive advantage that anyone else who moved into Netflix's space wound up falling behind from the start.

Now, Netflix says recommendations don't matter so much, as the streaming recommendations won't be as good when decoupled from its DVD library. Recommendations will matter more for Netflix's DVD service, Qwikster. Yet Netflix cares so little about its new brand that it didn't even secure the seldom-used Twitter handle from Jason Castillo, who posts gems such as "About as tired as shyt n I can't sleep" and apparently may not have recovered from hitting his head with a wrench.

If Netflix continues to go in this direction and hangs its hat on the dumb pipe delivery mechanism, it's a commodity. Ratings aren't commodities, though; they're personal. They'll turn a dumb pipe into a Ph.D. scholar. Who will be smart enough to capitalize on this opportunity?

Tune In, Check In, Tune Out

Originally published in MediaPost's Social Media Insider

A tweet from Sunday night: "@johnmccrea oh come on, will all these apps merge already?! :) and yes, giving it a try now." It was a long day of checking in, and I was reaching my breaking point.

At the time, I was online checking out Comedy Central's roast of David Hasselhoff. I heard there was some badge for it on Philo, one of a genre of entertainment check-in apps proliferating so rapidly that they bear a resemblance to the spread of cholera bacteria I'm reading about in the book "Ghost Map." I checked in on Philo only to have my friend Somrat Niyogi of Bazaar Labs telling me his app Miso offered a Hasselhoff badge, which I duly earned. By the time John told me about Tunerfish, I was ready to check out. My mobile Internet connection went on the fritz or I would have had to visit TV.com's Relay site too.

Earlier that day, I went to see the movie "Cairo Time" and, before the previews started, checked in with my usual Long Island Iced Tea of location-based apps: Foursquare, Whrrl, Gowalla, Yelp and SCVNGR. I still had some extra time, so I went to Miso and then GetGlue to share what movie I was seeing. Later I posted a note about the movie to Hot Potato.

While for many people a single check-in is a check-in too many, I enjoy some of the benefits that check-in services provide. Yet checking in somewhere is different than checking into a TV show or some form of recorded entertainment. Here are several reasons why:

1) Linguistics favor location. The most literal form of real-world checking in happens at a hotel. It's a similar process with a restaurant host or airline terminal. When flipping channels or bringing up a program on your DVR, there's not a natural reason to declare you're checking into it.

2) Television is more persistent. I'm always a fan of "Top Chef." I don't care if the hypercritical British judge is on that week or if the fan favorite pork chef from last season went home empty-handed by having one bad day. No matter what, I'm watching it. I like that on Facebook, I can mark the show as an interest, and it's part of my identity indefinitely. That's my badge, and my reward is that mild amount of social currency I earn from it.

3) TV is often time-shifted. When I'm home, I'm either time-shifting by at least a day, or I'm doing so by a little bit, like when I get a call at 9:55 p.m. so I start watching a show at 10:20. Movies in theaters at least have set start times, and I may know people who are with me at the theater. Note that there, with movies, the value is still largely location-based.

4) The real world is more fun. The more reasons I come up with, the more I keep coming back to why location matters overall. When you're out in the world, there are opportunities to meet people, discover new places and try new experiences. When you're home watching TV, there's the opportunity to watch something else instead. It's a rather unfair advantage. With other forms of entertainment like books, there's even more of a disconnect -- I'm all for book recommendations, but why am I checking into one? And then do you check in every time you sit back to read a few pages, or just once? What about magazines or newspapers? Location's easy; you're always somewhere, and occasionally somewhere interesting enough to share it.

The best argument to counter much of what I've said comes from the top Twitter trends, which are largely comprised of content and celebrities related to TV, movies, and music. People love talking about entertainment. People also like talking about cat videos and the coming weekend's football game, even though there's nothing to check into in those cases (at least, not until someone creates a cat video check-in app). Entertainment check-in apps can be fun, though the biggest challenge now is that they're a step removed from how people are using digital media, and all require learning new behavior.

Entertainment check-ins could be easier if you watched what you wanted and your mobile device automatically checked you in to those programs. Google actually applied for such a patent three years ago. ZDnet then reported, "A new Google Patent application entitled Social and Interactive Applications for Mass Media would trigger instant connections to users' social networks based on a type of audio recognition of key phrases the user encounters in broadcast or multimedia applications they are watching or listening to."

The application goes into staggering detail, with much of it focusing on advertising models, but Google appreciated how this could fit in with social media. The patent noted, "Ad hoc social peer communities provide a venue for commentary between users who are watching the same show on television or listening to the same radio station. For example, a user who is watching the latest CNN headlines can be provided with a commenting medium (e.g., a chat room, message board, wiki page, video link, etc.) that allows the user to chat, comment on or read other viewers responses to the ongoing mass media broadcast."

Google didn't refer to checking in specifically but detailed various other social actions. With Google's future plans for the patent unclear, enough startups are getting consumers closer to the overarching vision. I'll admit it was fun earning Hasselhoff badges on Miso and Philo. Such apps are increasingly offering material rewards for loyal fans, too. I'm still a check-in purist though, preferring them when I'm out in the real world with all the possibilities that can unfold.

CNN’s Rick Sanchez Goes from Mocked to Hero to My New Bud

CNN’s Rick Sanchez and I have had a pretty crazy relationship.

First I mentioned how he brought out the best and worst of cross-platform journalism thanks to integrating social media comments in ways that didn’t always add to the value of his show.

Then Rick actually responded on his own blog, and even on his TV show, in as transparent, humble, and authentic a way as anyone could ever do.

I came around and shared what a great listener he is. Yes, I’m still impressed.

Now, at 140 Conference (the Twitter event here in NYC today), I got to meet him, and even enjoy a photo op. Couldn’t resist. We even look a bit alike.

Gotta love social media – and how cross-platform has taken us through blogs, Twitter, TV, and ultimately an in-person meeting, which is what it should really all be about. It doesn’t get more social than that.

 

Technorati Tags: 140conf,conferences,events,rick sanchez,cnn,ricksanchezcnn

Yes, I'm Watching the Watchmen

Here's one of those executions that makes me think if the movie's anywhere nearly as good as it's marketing, it's going to be a great movie. In this case, it's the 'archival' footage promoting the film adaptation of the graphic novel The Watchmen. Courtesy of agency Rubber Republic, you can even watch it on this old-fashioned TV - but one with some DVR capabilities built in, so rewind away.

Click the panel at the bottom of the TV to view other videos.

Funny Video on the Digital TV Transition - Obama May Have to Delay It a Little Longer...

One other highlight of the Strategy Research event that I blogged about earlier was when they played this video on the Digital TV transition. Watching this may be the best two minutes of your day (yes, better than the time you spend on my presentation). Turn up the volume (and the volume on your hearing aid) and enjoy.

TV Report on the Future of Online Journalism -- from 1981

I don't usually repost stuff from the major blogs -- this one's via TechCrunch -- but this one is too good, and everyone remotely interested in online media needs to watch this. Original source: PopURLs on Twitter.

Killa KFC

I just caught this new KFC commercial about some kind of chipotle-flavored fried chicken. The two times I've eaten KFC I've regretted it, so I would have ignored the spot if I wasn't so distracted by the actor playing the father. Thanks to Google, I was able to find a direct link to the spot on KFC's website, which is smart on a number of levels, as it gets to control the brand experience rather than passing the buck to YouTube.

With a little more Googling, sure enough the actor in the KFC commercial is Chris Williams, one of the most memorable guest stars on Curb Your Enthusiasm in the Krazee-Eyez Killa epidode. A number of message boards, including those on IMDB, confirmed it's the same dude. Presumably KFC's target audience isn't watching too much Curb, as the character shift is way too jarring.

A few other thoughts:

1) Krazee-Eyez Killa needs his own show, on cable, ideally a subscription channel so the whole show wouldn't get bleeped out.

2) I clicked around KFC's promo area which led me to the Yum Brands store. Not only can you get a KFC Colonel bobblehead, but you can buy a "spa retreat" package in the KFC section. It's essentially cheap hotel shampoo and slippers. Really. You NEED to see this on their site, as the KFC connection's unclear from the photo below.

Google Measures Football Tune-In

There's been relatively little buzz lately about what Google's doing in the TV advertising space as much more attention has been going to the dealing with Yahoo and Ask, the battle with Microsoft as it rolls out more online office applications, and the debate over how its text ad revenue is doing this quarter (360i's sister company released a report available for download here and covered in the NY Times Bits Blog that shows Google's growth continues at a healthy clip).

Quietly, except seemingly in the information it shares with agencies, Google has reported on how much attention TV viewers paid to football games both on TV and on the web. You can find all of the analysis over at Google, but I'll include one of the more interesting charts here.

Below, Google describes how viewers tend to watch a football game (this is excerpted - more is available at the site):

The chart below shows the total number of active televisions tuned in to a given football game based on anonymous set-top box data. You can see that the viewership jumps by 75-100% within the first 10 minutes of the game. As the game continues, more people tune in. Between kickoff and the end of the game, the total number of viewers increases by 100-200%. The little bumps along the way represent televisions tuning away from the program during commercial breaks. You can see a consistent, longer dip during half-time.

What all of this means is that Google's reinforcing its value as providing real data and analysis to its TV advertisers rather than just trying to simplify the media buy itself. Ultimately, if Google can come out with enough actionable information, it may create a groundswell from the advertisers themselves rather than just by trying to get agencies to change how they buy media.

Live Blogging and Searching the Oscars

The MediaPost column from this past week is an excerpted, edited version of a post that ran on this blog a week ago during the Oscars. It's included below, and continues in the extended entry.

Two notes before proceeding:

1) Apparently, I'm really wearing my cultural illiteracy on my sleeve by not knowing who Edith Piaf is. I'll have to add that to the Netflix list. (The comments on MediaPost's site slapped my wrist for that one.)

2) The original blog post described how I didn't know what Jon Stewart meant talking about some dance called the "cabin patch" and that Google didn't help me any. Mercifully, Josh McHugh commented, "What Stewart was supposed to say was that Holbrook was doing the "cabbage patch," not the cabin patch. His only major gaffe of the show, and in an attempt at such a lame reference. The cabbage patch was a hard-to-execute and not-much-to-look-at dance move from the 1980s. Thanks to YouTube, it's your lucky day: here's a tutorial on said dance: http://tinyurl.com/ytxeut Enjoy."

Here's the video:

And now, on to the column:

Live Blogging and Searching the Oscars

During the Oscars, maybe you were playing a drinking game where you did a shot every time someone from the movie “Enchanted” took the stage, a challenge which would have brought down Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. Or maybe, like a surprisingly large percentage of Americans, you were watching reruns of “The Simpsons ” and “Cold Case.”

As for me, I was searching away, seeing how marketers and publishers were capitalizing on the Academy Awards. Below is an excerpted recap of the night, reported in full on my blog.

  8:45 p.m. (all times EST) “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” wins Best Costume. A Google search for “Elizabeth” brings up an ad for Liz Claiborne clothing. A minute later on TV, a MyCokeRewards commercial mentions something about a partnership to combat heart disease, but MyCokeRewards.com has nothing clearly visible on the site referring to it.

  8:55 p.m. “Ratatouille” wins best animated film. Searching Google for the movie leads to an ad from JuliasBraShop.com for lingerie. Whether I’m searching for the movie or the dish, I’m wondering how that one’s relevant.

  9:18 p.m. Best Supporting Actor winner: Javier Bardem. Moviefone’s the lone advertiser in Google for the actor’s name. Fancast advertises in Yahoo. As for the movie title, No Country for Old Men (without quotes), Blockbuster, Amazon, YellowPages and Netflix advertise on Yahoo, and Yahoo has a great featured info box above the natural search results with ratings and local showtimes. It does mean the top three links (the official site, IMDB, Wikipedia) get pushed further down, and everything else quickly disappears into no-man’s land.

  9:21 p.m. Dove encourages people to vote on the two ad finalists at Oscar.com — a huge win for Oscar.com and Dove. People can also text in the vote choice by just texting A or B to the short code, making it really easy. At DoveCreamOil.com (hosted on MSN), there’s a link to Oscar.com for the voting. And at Oscar.com, it is very clear where and how to vote. Mercifully, registration was not required.

  9:35 p.m. As of now, there’s nothing on Wikipedia  about Jon Stewart’s performance tonight other than the mention that he’s hosting the awards.

 

Live Blogging Oscar Online Marketing

I'll be including some notes about online media while the Oscars run tonight. Check back to this post repeatedly for updates.

8:45pm (all times EST): Elizabeth Golden Age wins Best Costume (EST)

* Google search for “Elizabeth” brings ad for Liz Claiborne clothing
* Google search for “Elizabeth Golden Age” brings up eBay Ad

MyCokeRewards commercial mentions something about a partnership about heart disease. Yet MyCokeRewards.com has nothing clearly visible on the site referring to it.

8:55pm
* Ratatouille wins best animated film. Google searching the movie leads to an ad from JuliesBraShop.com for lingerie. Whether I'm searching for the movie or the dish, I'm wondering how that one's relevant.

There are far more ads on Yahoo. For this search, there are ads from Family.com, eBay, Amazon, LeapFrog, HotMovieSale.com, Blockbuster, and AllPosters.com.

9:04pm
The wife's wondering how come the Oscars commercials are so much better than the Super Bowl. Maybe the agencies just needed more time this year? The MasterCard commercial with the lazy/curious eye was pretty good. Though the site, priceless.com/search, didn't have any recognizable connection to the ad.

9:09pm
Golden Compass wins an Oscar. Searching for that brings up no ads in Google. Kudos to Snopes.com for ranking #5 in the natural results for the movie title to clarify urban legends. It should get an extra bump from this. Note that Yahoo has some ads running for the movie title, including a couple book advertisers like Barnesandnoble.com.

9:12pm
In Google, there are tons of irrelevant results for the phrase (without quotes) 'Jon Stewart Oscar monologue." Roger Ebert's page at the Chicago Sun-Times ranks #1 - expect a bonus tonight too. Slate.com ranks #1 for the search at Yahoo and Live.com. Score. [Update: You can now find the monologue on YouTube.]

9:18pm
Best Supporting Actor winner: Javier Bardem. Moviefone's the lone advertiser in Google. Fancast advertises in Yahoo. As for the movie title, No Country for Old Men (without quotes), Blockbuster, Amazon, YellowPages and Netflix advertise on Yahoo, and Yahoo has a great featured info box above the natural search results with ratings and local showtimes. It does mean the top 3 links (official site, IMDB, Wikipedia) get pushed further down, and everything else quickly disappears into no man's land. Google's much more simple for the movie title, and RottenTomatoes advertises.

9:21pm
Dove encourages people to vote on the two ad finalists at Oscar.com - a huge win for Oscar and Dove. People can also text in the vote choice by just texting A or B to the short code, making it really easy. At DoveCreamOil.com (hosted on MSN), there's a link to Oscar.com for the voting. And at Oscar.com, it is very clear where and how to vote. Mercifully, registration was not required.

9:28pm
An aside: Jon Stewart's outstanding tonight. I'm really enjoying him. He just made some joke about actor Hal Holbrooke doing what I thought he said was the "cabin patch" - a dance of sorts. I couldn't find any related reference in Google. What was he talking about?

9:32pm
Jerry Seinfeld's bit about bees in movies is the funniest Bee Movie promo he's done - well, after the 30 Rock season premiere (check it out at Hulu.com).

9:35pm
As of now, there's nothing on Wikipedia about Jon Stewart's performance tonight other than the mention that he's hosting the awards. I wonder when something material will be updated.

9:38pm
Best Supporting Actress winner: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton. No ads in Google for a search on her name. For the movie name, finally, there's an Oscar movie survey from www.redirexit.com/Oscars. It's amazing, finally seeing an ad relevant to the awards. Granted, it looks like some spammy company offering a gift card for survey completions. Ugh. Amazon and Blockbuster advertise for Michael Clayton in Yahoo. Blockbuster's ad references the awards, saying "rent Oscar DVDs." It's something.

9:44pm
I just ran a search for "Dove," and Dove is well placed in the natural results in Google but doesn't advertise at all, which is a missed opportunity tonight. Strangely, here's the text of the ad - why does it think I'm in the UK? I even signed out of Google to make sure there wasn't a glitch with my personal settings and I got the same ad:

Buy Bath & Shower Here
Shower Gels, Soaps, Bath Products.
Buy Now! Next Day UK Delivery.
www.Chemistdirect.co.uk/Bath&Shower

9:48pm
Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men. Whew, I can hold off searching a sec since we just did this a minute ago.

9:57pm
I searched for Enchanted, which has provided two of the three best song nominations performed so far, and the two worst songs performed so far. In Google, there's just one ad for the movie title, an ad for "Enchanted ringtones" at bonusringtones.fm.

10:01pm
There's a TV spot for the special Oprah's Big Give. A search in Google shows Oprah.com ranking first, topped by an ad from ABC.com specifically about the special. Bravo.

10:12pm
Best Actress goes to someone in a movie no one's ever seen, and maybe no one's ever heard of. Well, that part's a given, unless it goes to Ellen Page for Juno. My favorite performance: Laura Linney in The Savages, a wonderful, biting picture. And it actually goes to... Marion Cotillard, so not only an actress no one's heard of with a name no one can pronounce playing a character's name I can never remember (Google had to correct me on her name). Google has no ads for her - go figure. Interestingly, the first result that comes up right after she wins is a section of Google News results that mentions she won some French award. She's racking up the continents.

10:27pm
Google saves me in a different way. Searching Google and Amazon confirms I didn't know the spelling of the name of my pseudo-uncle who's recovering from surgery (and doing fine, thanks). I was going to send him flowers and nearly entirely botched his name. And he's only been dating my aunt for, oh, 15 years.

10:44pm
The Counterfeiters is the first Austrian movie to win an Oscar (best foreign film). For the movie title, Moviefone advertisers in Google (in English, not Austrian). I'm leaving the word "the" out of searching, so for "counterfeiters," in Yahoo there's Amazon advertising as well as... Dealtime. What? This is great - here's the ad copy:

• Counterfeiters
  Millions of Products from Thousands of Stores All in One Place.
  www.Dealtime.com

Someone might want to rethink that ad copy. It makes me all the happier that Beaufort didn't win. Those ad mixups wouldn't be anywhere nearly as funny. More fun: in Ask.com, a search on Counterfeiters has recommendations to expand your search with FBI or CIA.

10:52pm
Once wins for Best Song. Thank goodness. Not only was it a great picture with truly moving music, but the trio from Enchanted had to be three of the worst songs ever nominated, and they were all from the same movie in the same year. And this $100,000 movie steals the award. In Google, FoxStore.com advertises, mentioning the "award-winning Irish musical," clearly a catch-all for a movie that already won awards, but fitting and timely given that people searching for it now will make the Oscar connection themselves.

10:57pm
Has this EVER happened? They cut off Markéta Irglová when she won for Once and then after the commercial brought her back on to give a speech. Wow. It's so great to hear from people who a) are so outside the establishment it's amazing they're there in the first place, and b) are genuinely excited to be there. It just makes this whole overblown night feel like it means something, since it really does matter to these people. Fittingly, no one's advertising on Marketa's name in Google, though Amazon is in Yahoo - and Amazon will do well to buy its way in as it's not in the top 10 natural results in Yahoo (it's #10 on page 1 of Google).

11:25pm
What's up with Harrison Ford's earring? Searching for info, apparently some think it's tied to a mid-life crisis. That just shows you how much a man this guy is, putting off his midlife crisis until he's in his 60s.

By the way, seeing the Dove ad a few minutes ago, the one that won the voting, was strangely satisfying. It's just a great media execution. I'd love to dive more into the psychological reactions for it. For instance, compare the reactions of those who didn't vote, those who voted for the winning ad, and those who voted for the loser. How are all affected? For the record, I voted for the winner, so maybe I'm predisposed to favoring it.

11:35pm
In Google, it's Moviefone advertising for the name of the Best Actor winner, Daniel Day Lewis. There are no ads for him in Yahoo. Top natural results in Yahoo: images from Yahoo, followed by IMDB, Wikipedia, and Yahoo Movies. In Google, the natural results are for Google News, then IMDB, Wikipedia, and a bio at tiscali.co.uk.

11:44pm
The Coen Brothers predictably win Best Director. Surprisingly, a local ad is the sole ad to appear in Google:
 

Ethan Coen Off Broadway
Almost an Evening - 3 short plays
Theatres at 45 Bleecker, NYC
www.almostanevening.com
New York, NY

11:46pm
And the winner is... No Country for Old Men. No ads in Google. In Yahoo: Blockbuster, Amazon, Netflix, and YellowPages advertise (though again, the best real estate goes to the Yahoo Movies roundup). In Live.com, Amazon and YellowPages.com advertised. In Ask.com, there's the local ad again for almostanevening.com.


And the ad winner is...

DOVE! Great use of multichannel marketing here.

And the loser is...

Dealtime. That Counterfeiters ad was far more entertaining than four of the five best song performances.

Thanks to all the nominees. You've been great. Sorry if your speech time was limited.